William Katz: Urgent Agenda
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SNIPPETS, our daily collection of short items and comments, is here. --------------------------------------------- BARACK OBAMA'S FIRST HUNDRED DAYS is on hiatus until after the conventions. We've gone through the first 50 days. The conventions and the launch of the fall campaign will provide new material, new absurdities, and allow us to finish the first 100 days just before the election. An archive containing the first 50 days is here. --------------------------------------------- Our next subscription drive will be in October. However, readers are invited to subscribe at any time. Subscriptions are voluntary, but are critical to keeping us going. Subscribe in the right-hand column. -------------------------------------------- We have a remarkable week coming up - The GOP convention, and the challenge of handling a major Gulf hurricane. The key: How John McCain and Sarah Palin accept their party's nominations while showing leadership in Hurricane Gustav. We'll be blogging all week.
SUNDAY, AUGUST 31, 2008 STUNNER: A NEW CNN POLL JUST OUT, AND TAKEN OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS, SHOWS OBAMA WITH ONLY A ONE-POINT LEAD. THE BOUNCE HAS STOPPED AND THE BALL IS ROLLING DOWN THE HILL.
PALIN POWER Posted at 11:42 p.m. ET We're back now after visiting West Point for the season-closing concert of the U.S. Military Academy Concert Band, and the Jazz Knights. You haven't lived until you've heard the Concert Band play the "1812 Overture" with live Army cannon providing the effects, and fireworks bursting overhead. We've gone every year for years, and you never tire of the performance. Earlier in the evening I was able to listen to part of the John Batchelor Show on ABC radio. He interviewed Mona Charen and John Fund, who are covering the Republican convention. Two points from those interviews:
The major network anchors are now rushing to the Gulf Coast to cover the storm. Not to worry. Even if they try to avoid the GOP convention, they can't. McCain is handling the situation with sensitivity and competence, and that may do him more goods than a lot of ribbons and balloons. August 31, 2008. Permalink
DUMMIES WE Posted at 2:37 pm. ET Dean Barnett has an excellent piece in The Weekly Standard, examining how the Democrats are likely to assault Sarah Palin. Very perceptive, I think:
And...
That is correct. It's remarkable that many Democrats still refer to Reagan as "stupid," and regard the current president, who reads widely, as intellectually stunted. He is not. This really began, though, not with Ford, but with Eisenhower, one of the most thoughtful men ever to hold the presidency. Democrats sneered at him as a simpleton and an "Army man."
But, dearies, our Barack is simply searching for the precise word, the way a true intellect would. Don't you understand that?
And went to the right schools, too, not like that Alaska person.
And...
I'm afraid that's correct. But there's good news...
Well said. Read the piece. August 31, 2008. Permalink TRACKERS Posted at 1:49 p.m. ET Both trackers for Sunday are now out, and both show a slight erosion in support for Obama. As reported earlier, Rasmussen has Obama up three points. He had him up four yesterday. Gallup has Obama up six. He was up eight yesterday. It's clear that whatever bounce Obama received from his convention has stopped bouncing. But let me point out that Obama is still ahead. Although he received less-than-expected momentum from his convention, he didn't lose anything there either. Those of us supporting McCain should be sobered by the fact that McCain has rarely been ahead in this race, and then only by a point or two. It remains to be seen whether McCain will improve his standing at this week's GOP convention, which may be modified because of Hurricane Gustav. It's also clear that the initial reaction to Sarah Palin has been very positive, especially among conservatives. Look for Democrats, probably led by some leftist feminists, to mount a full-scale attack against her. The press will help out, with enthusiasm. It will get ugly. Obama is not a "new" kind of politician. In fact, he's standard issue, with a silver tongue. The Chicago machine did not teach him how to wage a fair fight. The election is still more than two months away. Everything can change. August 31, 2008. Permalink
COMMENT: Real imaginative, especially having John Kerry carry the ball. Is the Democratic death wish, previously demonstrated by Kerry's own nomination, coming back? Apparently so.
And Rasmussen reports the following: "There have been significant changes in perception of John McCain in the two days of polling since he named Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Since then, 49% of Republicans voice a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. That’s up six percentage points from 43% just before the announcement. Also, 64% of unaffiliated voters now give positive reviews to McCain, up ten points since naming his running mate."
Really? Every direction? Don't you usually head out of the city when fleeing? Does anyone read AP stories before they're put on the wire? We'll check and tell you which way the traffic is going. Shouldn't take much.
THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN Posted at 8:47 a.m. ET "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain." Wasn't that the line from "The Wizard of Oz?" Apparently, the Obama campaign has learned it well. Have you noticed that virtually everything the opposition brings up is called a "distraction" by the Obama camp? Rev. Wright? Distraction. Bill Ayers? Distraction. Connection to a Chicago criminal? Distraction. Now we have the mother of all distractions. Behold:
Nothing to see, folks. Nothing to see. Move along, please. Pay no attention to that woman on the ticket.
Fellas, this is getting tiresome. George Bush isn't on the ballot. What is remarkable about this ad, and other aspects of the Obama campaign, is the contempt that is shown for the American people. Don't the Obamacans realize that people know that McCain is very much his own man? Don't they realize that Americans know, especially after her Friday speech, that Sarah Palin isn't running to advance the Bush administration? Simply calling Palin another distraction reveals a campaign that is tired and stale. And why shouldn't it be? The Obama campaign is remarkably lacking in substance or originality. The Palin pick caught them off guard. They responded with a patronizing cliché. You know, they could lose this. August 31, 2008. Permalink THE AGONY OF THE MEDIA Posted at 7:46 a.m. ET Decisions, decisions. What to do, what to do? I feel the media's pain as it decides which is more important this week, the hurricane or the convention. Just the anguish in their hearts moves me. Do read the report of their suffering at The Politico:
Believe me, this is complete dry rot. Remember something called World War II? There was a war in Europe, and there was a war in the Pacific. And there was war at hundreds of spots in between. And, amazing, the whole war got covered. News organizations have the resources, either individually or through pools, to cover both stories. But I do suspect (why is this?) that some news outlets look forward to minimizing or even blotting out the Republican convention. For them, this really is the perfect storm. Okay, that's terribly harsh. But we now know that a number of "journalists" stood and applauded Barack Obama's acceptance speech in Denver Thursday night. That is outrageously unprofessional behavior. So excuse me if I attribute less-than-professional motives to some other journalists. They embarrass my profession. The Republicans may modify or even put off their convention. McCain is now surrounded by first-class strategists, and they have the ability to turn this sad disruption into an advantage. Yes, that's political calculation in the face of tragedy, but that is what strategists are paid to do. Even if the midst of major war, elections are held and strategists plan. So watch what the candidates do this week if the hurricane hits hard. And watch how the news media handle the balance between Republicans and weather. August 31, 2008. Permalink
In an interview to air on "FOX News Sunday," McCain said that holding the convention while Gulf Coast residents suffer would be insensitive. COMMENT: The McCain people are on the ball. I hope McCain sends Sarah Palin to Louisiana to render assistance. He might consider going himself. Louisiana has a great governor in Bobby Jindal. This won't be Katrina...unless the press makes it into Katraina to help its candidate.
THE EXPERIENCE FACTOR Posted at 6:45 p.m. ET The "experience" factor has come to the fore again with John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin to be his running mate. There is anguish. There is regret. There are predictions of a backlash. That childish woman in our White House. Even The Politico, liberal but usually restrained, ran a hit piece quoting "scholars" as saying that Palin has fewer qualifications than any major-party candidate, maybe in all of human history. Reality check: No one doubts there are legitimate questions about Palin's experience, but I'm surprised that no one is examining the role that experience plays in voters' decisions. In fact, it often plays a very small role. In 1932, incumbent and vastly experienced Herbert Hoover was defeated by one-term Governor Franklin D. Roosevelt, because of the depression. In 1952, politically experienced Governor Adlai Stevenson of Illinois was defeated by war hero Dwight D. Eisenhower, who'd never held political office. In 1960, former congressman, senator, and incumbent Vice President Richard Nixon, running on the slogan, "Experience counts," was defeated by the much-less-experienced John F. Kennedy. In 1976, heavily experienced and incumbent President Gerald R. Ford was defeated by former Georgia Governor Jimmah Carter, who'd never held federal office. In 1980, incumbent President Carter was defeated by former California Governor Ronald Reagan, who'd never held federal office. In 1992, the resumé president, George H.W. Bush, one of the most experienced men ever to hold the presidency, was defeated by Bill Clinton, governor of a small state, who'd never held federal office. In 2000, Vice President and former Senator Al Gore was defeated by the less experienced George W. Bush, who'd never held federal office. And, need we point out, that 2008 has the vastly experienced John S. McCain running against Chicago machine product Barack Obama, a man whose experience can fit on the thin edge of a falsified voter-registration card. Let's hope that this time the voters choose the more experienced presidential candidate. August 30, 2008. Permalink
THE OTHER WOMAN Posted at 2:24 p.m. ET HEADLINE OF THE DAY, FROM THE NEW YORK POST: 'HILL' HATH NO FURY LIKE A WOMAN SCORNED. And the story:
Open those wounds, open those wounds!
First reaction to Palin by voters appears to be very positive, despite the legitimate "experience" question. It's a gamble, but it may well pay off, especially if Palin does brilliantly at the convention. August 30, 2008. Permalink TRACKERS Posted at 1:28 p.m ET Both trackers for the day are now out, and both show no change from yesterday. That is not good news for Senator Obama. Theoretically, at least, his bounce from the convention should still be building. As reported earlier, Rasmussen has Obama up four. Gallup has him up eight. Did Sarah Palin stop the Obama bounce? Both tracking polls included results from last night, after McCain announced his choice of Palin. With caution, it appears there was an effect. However, we'll get a far better idea of her impact as the Republican convention unfolds this week. If this is the maximum bounce, it must be disappointing to the Obama side. Averaging the two polls, Obama gets a six-point boost. He needed double digits to do some real damage to McCain. This will be a close, exciting, and critical election. August 30, 2008. Permalink
Just as significant, Rasmussen reports that Sarah Palin has made a strong first impression, with 53 percent of those polled viewing her favorably. By contrast, 48 percent view Joe Biden favorably. Not bad for one day. Not bad at all.
EYES AND EARS OF THEMSELVES Journalists love to boast that they're the "eyes and ears" of the public. They are not, as I found out in my years in the business. They are the eyes and ears of themselves. No one elected them. They were not appointed by a body of our representatives to extend our eyes and ears. The questions they ask are not ours, but theirs. Their views, as a profession, decidedly do not reflect the divisions in public opinion. Lawrence Spivak, who co-founded "Meet the Press," used to caution viewers that the questions asked by reporters on the show did not necessarily reflect their point of view, but was "their way of getting a story for you." Such cautions are rare today, and in too many cases would probably be laughable. So it's not surprising to see the mainstream media go to work on Sarah Palin. Consider this, from the reliably liberal Jonathan Alter of Newsweek:
What strikes me is the obvious enthusiasm here. The same mainstream media that ignored for months, or years, serious questions about Barack Obama, cannot wait to jump on Sarah Palin. And when Joe Biden was selected as Obama's vice-presidential choice last week, did you see a single probing report on his foreign-policy judgment in his 36 years in the Senate? We were told he was a foreign-policy expert, and it was left at that. In fact, many of Biden's judgments are open to the most serious questions, but those questions are not being asked. Indeed, if Biden's advice had been followed, the Cold War would still be raging and Saddam Hussein would be running Kuwait. Or consider this, from today's editorial in The New York Times:
Is that a serious statement? Has The Times raised the same question about the top of the Democratic ticket, one Barack Obama? His experience consists of some trips and some offhand remarks, such as declaring Iran a small country, or pledging to end missile defense. And he won't have to "succeed" to the presidency. If elected, he'll be there. Further, he's surrounded himself with some of the worst foreign-policy retreads we've seen in decades. Comment from The Times, please? (Oh, and by the way, New York Times, the word is "criterion" when a singular is called for, not "criteria." To avoid confusion, use "standard.") We've expressed our fear here that the media can elect Barack Obama by the way it filters the news. We're seeing more proof of that threat in the initial response to Sarah Palin. August 30, 2008. Permalink
Posted at 8:41 a.m. ET Ed Lasky of American Thinker alerts us to a Wall Street Journal piece outlining the reform background of Sarah Palin. She reinforces the reform image that McCain seeks for his campaign, and she's an antidote to Joe six-Senate-terms Biden, the consummate Washington hand:
And...
Do not get on the wrong side of this woman. There are health hazards.
Finally...
She'll have to steel herself against attacks by the press, which will become increasingly strident if she catches on. But she strikes us as strong and gutsy, and she has a chance to emerge as an American hero. August 30, 2008. Permalink
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